Signals or Noise? An Economic Forecast

The economic forecast is a highlight of each year’s conference. Tom Cunningham, recently retired Atlanta Fed senior economist, returns this year to interpret the economic indicators that reveal how our economy is doing and where it is likely headed. MST’s Max Oberkofler will demonstrate how economic indicators impact today’s allowance estimations and how that may differ under CECL.



Tom Cunningham joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta as an economist with the macropolicy group in 1985. He was promoted to senior economist in 1989, and to research officer and senior economist with responsibility for the regional group in 1992. He retired from the Fed in 2015 and currently works with MST Advisory as a consultant.

Max Oberkofler is a member of the MST team assisting financial institutions with ALLL automation and the transition to CECL. Besides his experience with a variety of banks, methodologies and models, Max is instrumental in the development of the MST Virtual Economist, a powerful tool that simplifies correlation analysis and forecasting utilizing a lender’s internal data and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).